Fans travelling to Melbourne for Australia’s first regular season NFL game will not be able to trade prediction market contracts from the stadium, highlighting the regulatory limits facing US platforms overseas.
An estimated 10,000 US fans are expected at the Melbourne Cricket Ground for Thursday night’s game, which will take place on Friday in Melbourne. The Los Angeles Rams will face the San Francisco 49ers, 7,971 miles from Levi’s Stadium, where the NFC West rivals last met.
Trading on prediction markets is illegal in Australia, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) has stated. In guidance issued last month, ASIC reiterated that prediction markets are not licensed to operate as financial markets in the country and warned consumers about using offshore platforms that lack Australian authorisation.
The position is relevant to Kalshi, which requires customers to provide proof of US residency and a US tax identification number. Users must also complete know-your-customer checks before trading.
Kalshi’s restrictions
Kalshi’s nine-page member agreement, issued in June, says customers domiciled in roughly three dozen countries are prohibited from trading event contracts. Australia is included on that list, and Kalshi reserves the right to deny access to users in restricted jurisdictions.
Kalshi has not set out a clear timetable for international expansion. The company may wait until after completing an initial public offering, while it has sought a valuation of around $44 billion.
ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland said in an August statement that customers using overseas operators could lose access to protections available in Australia. The Australian Communications and Media Authority banned Polymarket from operating nationwide in 2025, saying the platform breached the Interactive Gaming Act of 2001 by accepting in-play betting on sports events.
The restrictions also align with concerns raised by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell. Speaking from Melbourne, he called for tougher rules for prediction markets to protect consumers and the integrity of professional sports.
“We think there needs to be stronger regulations into the predictive markets,” Goodell said. “We want to see that to protect the integrity of our game — we want to make sure we are protecting the consumers that are on those platforms.”
Rams face high expectations
At 3 pm ET, Kalshi gave the Rams a 64% chance of beating the 49ers. A $100 position on a Rams win would return $150.15. The team added Pro Bowl defenders Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie during the offseason and is the only NFL team to open the season with double-digit odds to win Super Bowl LXI, at 17%.
That probability equates to +488 in American odds. However, each of the previous 25 NFL teams to begin a season at +500 or shorter failed to win the Super Bowl.
The NFL has opposed some event contracts, including markets covering player injuries, penalty totals and missed field goals. Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League have signed Memorandum of Understanding agreements with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission allowing participating teams to partner with operators.
“We don’t think we have to be first in this, we feel like we’re going to be right,” Goodell said. “The best thing to do is be patient and make sure you keep the integrity of the game No. 1.”
