A study of Instagram’s betting recommendations in Brazil found that 84% of the operators most frequently suggested by the platform were not authorised to operate in the country, highlighting risks for regulators, operators and users.
The finding comes from Rede em Jogo, a project by CondadoLab at PUC-Rio. Researchers analysed more than 55,000 Instagram accounts and compared the results with the official list of operators authorised by the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA).
How Instagram builds the betting ecosystem
The study found that following one betting-related account can trigger recommendations for other profiles in the same segment. These include operators, influencers, content creators and specialist media accounts.
The 100 most recommended profiles had more than 6 million followers and 114,000 posts combined. Some content presented betting as an investment or a route to regular income, while influencers known as tipsters, sports traders and “professional gamblers” sold predictions, spreadsheets and access to private groups.
One influencer, identified under the fictitious name Pedro, promoted a Telegram group offering sports predictions, operator tips and higher-value betting odds. He said monthly access normally cost BRL397 ($77.18), but offered the service for “only BRL14.91 per month on the annual plan” as part of a one-day promotion.
Other posts used phrases such as “leaving the CLT [Brazilian labour law]” and “your dream income”. The study also found screenshots showing alleged user profits and material portraying gambling as a form of investment.
Unauthorised operators and Fortune Tiger
Many of the recommended companies are unauthorised in Brazil, even where they may hold licences in other countries. The research also identified casino-focused creators promoting games such as Fortune Tiger through tactics similar to those used in sports betting content.
An influencer identified as João shared live game-style videos, indicated which operator or game was “paying the most” and promoted supposed “highest payout” times in a private Telegram group. Another post claimed to teach players how to identify patterns in the game interface that might signal a large win.
Specialist channels, portals, journalists and gossip profiles formed another part of the ecosystem. Their content presented betting promotions as news, covering odds, operator features, regulatory developments and bettor outcomes.
The study found that references to the National Advertising Self-Regulation Council, SIGAP and responsible gaming were common, including in material linked to unauthorised operators. Terms such as “authorised” and the “.bet” domain extension were also used in ways that could give illegal businesses an appearance of legitimacy.
Meta’s policies
Meta allows authorised gambling platforms to use programmatic advertising and branded content, provided they obtain platform approval, do not target people under 18 and avoid territories where gambling is unregulated. Its approval process requires licence documentation and releases Meta from liability for content violations.
However, the policies do not explain how certifications, licences or irregular operators are validated and monitored. The study described the combination of these gaps and Instagram’s recommendations as a systemic risk, calling for broader monitoring, identification and moderation obligations under SPA and National Data Protection Agency rules.
