Democrats won control of both the Senate and House of Representatives in Tuesday’s US midterm elections, limiting President Trump’s ability to advance his agenda. The result is not expected to change gambling policy nationally in the short term, but races and ballot measures produced mixed outcomes for gaming interests across several states.
Prediction markets and federal policy
The future of prediction markets is more likely to be decided by the Supreme Court than by Congress in the near term. The sector has gained support under Trump, including broad regulatory permission from Trump-appointed CFTC chair Michael Selig, a marked shift from the Biden administration’s approach.
If voter discontent with Trump and the Republican party persists into the 2028 presidential election, a Democratic administration could take a different position on prediction markets. Democratic control of Congress may also make it harder for Trump to appoint a Supreme Court justice sympathetic to his priorities if Justices Clarene Thomas or Samuel Alito retire during his term.
Florida governor Ron DeSantis wrote that the chances of confirming a “worthy successor” to either justice during the remainder of Trump’s presidency are virtually “zero.” That could affect a potential Supreme Court case over the legality of sports-event contracts.
Nevada and Ohio elect Democratic governors
In Nevada, Democrat Aaron Ford defeated incumbent Republican Joe Lombardo in a close governor’s race watched by the state’s gambling industry. Lombardo was viewed as more pro-business and said during the campaign that he needed to “take care” of gaming billionaires who support employment. His campaign received millions of dollars from gaming-related donors, including $3 million from Station Casinos, $2 million from the Fertitta family and $1 million from Las Vegas Sands. Ford was backed by unions, including hospitality unions representing casino workers.
Democrat Amy Acton defeated Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio. Acton supports legalising online casinos, with conditions around player safety and advertising. Online sports betting, land-based sports wagering and casinos are legal in the state, but online casinos are not. Ramaswamy had not stated a position on iGaming legalisation. The state’s current governor, Republican Mike DeWine, opposed it last year, saying gambling expansion had brought Ohio to saturation. Republicans control the legislature, leaving Acton to seek cross-party support for any change.
Ballot measures and local casino plans
Nebraska’s Measures 440 and 441, which together would have allowed licensed racetracks to partner with online gambling operators and enabled regulatory oversight, appeared headed for defeat. With more than 95% of votes counted, Measure 440 was losing by about 55% to 45%, with Measure 441 on course to fail by a similar margin.
In Virginia, Pulaski voters rejected satellite facilities for pari-mutuel wagering, 56.46% to 43.54%. A similar measure in Amherst County was narrowly ahead, 50.66% to 49.34%, with 92% of results reported.
In Indiana, Allen, DeKalb and Steuben counties appeared set to reject proposals to apply for an inland casino license. Only one license is available. Decision Desk HQ projected defeats of roughly 60% to 40% in Allen, 65% to 35% in DeKalb and 59% to 41% in Steuben. Local business groups supported the plans as an economic stimulus, while critics said gambling would harm local residents.
