Kalshi’s legal fight with US states is built on the argument that all of its event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, giving the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction. But an analysis of the exchange’s August trade record found that markets with the clearest connection to financial or economic exposure accounted for only 0.6% of customer money staked.
Sports and short-term price markets dominate
Gambling Insider’s reconstruction of Kalshi’s public trade data on Dune found $11.4 billion in August staked volume, compared with $12.3 billion in July and $9.6 billion in June.
That is substantially below the approximately $40 billion figure Kalshi reports. The company counts every contract at its $1 settlement value, regardless of the price paid. The analysis instead measured each trade at its clearing price. Across August, the average contract traded at 28.6 cents, creating a 3.5-fold difference between the two methods.
At least 61% of the money staked in August was placed on sports outcomes. A further 34% went to short-dated crypto and commodity contracts, led by bitcoin markets resolving over 15-minute intervals. Together, the categories represented roughly 95% of customer stakes.
By contrast, markets covering interest rates, inflation, elections, index levels and government funding attracted $64.3 million, or 0.6% of the exchange. Their share never exceeded 2.5% in any month of 2026, despite reaching its annual peak in January. The category’s volume fell from $95.8 million in January to $64.3 million in August while Kalshi’s total volume tripled.
Courts split over sports contracts
The data does not resolve whether the contracts qualify legally as swaps. In April, a divided Third Circuit affirmed an injunction allowing Kalshi to continue trading in New Jersey, reasoning that sports outcomes have economic consequences for sponsors, broadcasters, franchises and communities.
The Ninth Circuit reached the opposite conclusion on Aug. 28 in KalshiEX, LLC v. Assad. It held that sports event contracts are not swaps and that federal law does not prevent state gambling regulation. The court said the economic connection must be direct to the contracting parties and questioned whether the products transfer genuine risk.
The split now leaves roughly two dozen states involved in litigation, while New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to review the issue. Mike Roselli, Chief Regulatory Officer at 365Prediction, said: “With the appellate courts now split after the Ninth Circuit’s recent decision, at this point Supreme Court review feels like a matter of when, not if.”
Kalshi’s combo markets illustrate the effect of the measurement issue. They represented about 44% of August volume at face value, but only $1.1 billion, or roughly 10%, when measured by actual stakes. Sports and combos together accounted for 58.5% on that basis.
Kalshi’s figures exclude payouts and reflect trades rather than a sportsbook-style handle. The analysis also notes that the CFTC-regulated US Polymarket exchange is separate from the international platform measured in the comparison.
Source: Gambling Insider
